St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Remillard walked, Jiménez scored, Burger to second, Grandal to third.7–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 47–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Robert Jr. homered to left (395 feet).7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Arenado homered to left (378 feet), Nootbaar scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Remillard singled to right, Grandal scored and Burger scored, Remillard to second.5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Burger doubled to left, Jiménez scored and Vaughn scored, Grandal to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Vaughn doubled to right, Anderson scored, Jiménez to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Burger homered to right center (395 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Herrera reached on infield single to second, Gorman scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Arenado homered to left (341 feet), Nootbaar scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Carlson singled to left, Herrera scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- STL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +4 Elo | CHW 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 20–2324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.