St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Elvis AndrusBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10DeJong doubled to left, Gorman scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Nootbaar scored, Contreras out at second, Donovan to third.3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Remillard scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Robert Jr. scored, Pérez safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Gorman, Sheets to second, Burger to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Contreras homered to left (363 feet), Arenado scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Andrus singled to left, Colás scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 54%
- Fair odds
- CHW -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +28 Elo | CHW 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 21–2424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.