Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz grounded out to pitcher, Abrams scored, Smith to second, Thomas to third.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–8
- 6Gorman reached on infield single to first, Walker scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 6Burleson grounded out to second, Nootbaar scored, Walker to third.3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Goldschmidt homered to center (443 feet), Donovan scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Smith doubled to right, Abrams scored and Thomas scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Gorman homered to right center (423 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Nootbaar singled to center, Knizner scored, Donovan to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Donovan reached on infield single to shortstop, DeJong scored, Knizner to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Knizner singled to right, Gorman scored, DeJong to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Ruiz homered to right (358 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Fair odds
- STL -113
- WSH +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.2 – 5.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +6 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +25 Elo | STL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 17–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.