Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting4-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner singled to left, Amaya scored, Wisdom to third.3–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–17
- 8Mastrobuoni grounded out to first, Tauchman scored, Wisdom to second, Amaya to third.3–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–15
- 8Amaya singled to center, Gomes scored, Tauchman to second.3–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–14
- 8Tauchman singled to right, Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored, Gomes to third.3–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–12
- 8Gomes singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bellinger to second, Suzuki to third.3–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 8Suzuki singled to center, Mastrobuoni scored, Hoerner to second.3–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 8Hoerner singled to center, Wisdom scored, Mastrobuoni to third.3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 7Amaya singled to center, Bellinger scored and Gomes scored, Amaya thrown out at second.3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Tauchman grounded out to second, Happ scored, Gomes to second, Bellinger to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Happ doubled to left, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Suzuki singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored, Hoerner to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -116
- WSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 5.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −13 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +31 Elo | CHC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.