San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Reds- Luke MaileBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Flores homered to center (410 feet).1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5India singled to left, Fraley scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Benson doubled to left, Encarnacion-Strand scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, India scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Maile homered to center (423 feet), Benson scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.0 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +20 | SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–18 | Road vs home | 24–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 2–1 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.