San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting2-3
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Smith singled to center, Candelario scored, Ruiz to third.1–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 4Ruiz singled to right, Thomas scored, Candelario to second.1–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Candelario singled to left, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.1–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 4Thomas doubled to left, L. García scored, Abrams to third.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Davis hit sacrifice fly to center, Wade Jr. scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 2Abrams homered to right center (392 feet), Call scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Call tripled to right, Smith scored and Dickerson scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Dickerson singled to right, Ruiz scored, Smith to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Smith singled to center, Meneses scored, Ruiz to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- WSH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +8 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +30 Elo | SF 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–20 | Road vs home | 16–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.