San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meneses doubled to left, Abrams scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Chavis doubled to left, Garrett scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Pederson homered to right (429 feet), Wade Jr. scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Abrams homered to center (414 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Ruiz doubled to left, Candelario scored, Meneses to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Thomas homered to center (413 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Davis homered to right (384 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -105
- WSH +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | SF: Alex Wood: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +37 Elo | SF 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–19 | Road vs home | 15–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.