Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner homered to left center, Morel scored, Mastrobuoni scored and Tauchman scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Gomes hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8García singled to center, Chavis scored, Dickerson to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Candelario homered to center (395 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Tauchman doubled to center, Barnhart scored, Tauchman out stretching at third.1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Tauchman doubled to left, Mastrobuoni scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2García reached on infield single to second, Meneses scored, Smith to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Tauchman homered to left center (365 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.1 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +42 Elo | CHC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 23–2522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 4–2 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.