Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to right, Matos scored, Davis to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8Bleday singled to center, A. Díaz scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to right, Flores scored, Bailey to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 66%
- Fair odds
- SF -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +114 Elo | SF 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–35 | Road vs home | 26–2214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.