Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón homered to left center (404 feet).3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Julks walked, Madris scored, Peña to second, Diaz to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 42–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Soderstrom singled to center, Bleday scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Diaz homered to left center (398 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Bleday homered to right center (434 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- OAK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 4.3 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +74 Elo | HOU 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3030–22 | Road vs home | 15–3830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 8–1 OAK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.