San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Short homered to left (359 feet), Ibañez scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Flores homered to left (382 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored, Torkelson to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Carpenter singled to right, Rogers scored, Greene to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Torkelson singled to center, Greene scored, Torkelson to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- SF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −5 | SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +9 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 21–2727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–2 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.