Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4
- Zack GreinkePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to left, McKinstry scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Haase singled to left, Baddoo scored, Ibañez to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Ibañez singled to left, Maton scored, Baddoo to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- KC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | DET: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 15–3529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 6–3 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.