Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cabrera singled to center, Carpenter scored, Báez to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Carpenter singled to center, Greene scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Isbel doubled to center, Massey scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Massey doubled to right, Duffy scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Báez homered to left center (409 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.8 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 15–3429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 5–3 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.