Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling doubled to right, Greene scored and Torkelson scored, Carpenter to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Carpenter walked, Baddoo scored, Torkelson to second, Greene to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 41–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pratto singled to left, Fermin scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Fermin singled to left, Melendez scored, Fermin to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −14 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 14–3329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.