Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Royals- Dairon BlancoBatting4-4, 3 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baddoo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rogers scored, Maton out at second, Báez to third.10–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 19–11
- 9Maton walked, Carpenter scored, Báez to second, Rogers to third.9–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 49–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–11
- 9Báez singled to center, Vierling scored, Rogers to second, Carpenter to third.8–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–11
- 9Rogers singled to center, McKinstry scored, Carpenter to second, Vierling to third.7–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 8Garcia reached on infield single to pitcher, Blanco scored.6–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–10
- 8Blanco doubled to left, Fermin scored.6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–9
- 6Garcia doubled to center, Blanco scored and Olivares scored.6–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 6Baddoo hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.6–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 5Torkelson homered to left (382 feet), Ibañez scored and Vierling scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 4Blanco reached on bunt single to first, Waters scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -103
- KC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +17 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +18 Elo | DET 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 14–3429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 5–2 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.