San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex FaedoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez singled to right, Bogaerts scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored, Carpenter to second, Torkelson to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Ibañez homered to left (405 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Torkelson homered to left (369 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 41%
- Fair odds
- DET -101
- SD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −29 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +62 Elo | SD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 20–2727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.