San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Greene homered to right center (376 feet), Rogers scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Maton hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5McKinstry homered to right (351 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Soto homered to center (463 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Cronenworth tripled to center, Machado scored and Bogaerts scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Soto homered to center (447 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- SD +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +4 Elo | SD 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 3021–28 | Road vs home | 20–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.