San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jackson WolfPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching2.1 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Campusano homered to left (401 feet), Machado scored and Cronenworth scored.14–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play14–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 311–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 7Kim homered to left (397 feet).11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 5Soto singled to center, Kim scored and Rivas scored, Tatis Jr. to second.10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–3
- 5Grisham hit sacrifice fly to left, Campusano scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5Campusano reached on infield single to shortstop, Cronenworth scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Cronenworth tripled to right, Bogaerts scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Campusano scored, Kim to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Machado homered to left (398 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Soto doubled to left, Grisham scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Short singled to center, Cabrera scored and Rogers scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -106
- SD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | SD: Jackson Wolf (no track record yet) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +11 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 20–2627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.