Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Muncy homered to right (371 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Steer singled to center, Friedl scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Newman hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored, Friedl to second.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Muncy homered to right center (400 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +41 Elo | LAD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–22 | Road vs home | 30–194th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.