Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yelich homered to left (378 feet), Frelick scored and Perkins scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Benson homered to center (418 feet), Steer scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Votto singled to center, McLain scored, India to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4India reached on infield single to third, Friedl scored, McLain to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +3 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.020th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 28–2313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–9 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.