Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adames homered to center (390 feet), Contreras scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 5Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Riley scored, Murphy out at second, Olson to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Riley homered to right (378 feet), Albies scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Arcia homered to left center (402 feet), Murphy scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Winker singled to center, Contreras scored, Winker out stretching at second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Contreras doubled to center, Yelich scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 46%
- Fair odds
- MIL -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | ATL: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–14 | Road vs home | 26–2110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.