Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-3
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras singled to left, Monasterio scored, Turang to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Yelich homered to right center (397 feet), Monasterio scored and Turang scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- MIL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 26–187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.