Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich grounded into fielder's choice to second, Monasterio scored, Wiemer out at second.3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Stott singled to left, Turner scored, Harper to second.2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Monasterio scored on error, Turang safe at first on error by first baseman Hall.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Monasterio doubled to center, Tapia scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Bohm grounded out to second, Realmuto scored, Stott to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (386 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −12 | MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–21 | Road vs home | 25–177th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.