Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras doubled to center, Wiemer scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Contreras doubled to left, Perkins scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Schwarber singled to center, Bohm scored and Marsh scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Castellanos homered to left (375 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Yelich doubled to left, Perkins scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Perkins doubled to center, Monasterio scored and Jones scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Fair odds
- PHI -113
- MIL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +31 Elo | PHI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 26–176th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.