Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. homered to right (353 feet).6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Benintendi singled to left, Colás scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Burger homered to right (355 feet).5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 5Riley singled to left, Albies scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Benintendi doubled to left, Zavala scored, Benintendi out stretching at third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (426 feet), Harris II scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Rosario homered to right center (431 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Robert Jr. doubled to center, Benintendi scored and Colás scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Benintendi singled to left, Remillard scored, Colás to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Fair odds
- ATL -143
- CHW +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +2 | CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +125 Elo | ATL 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–30 | Road vs home | 31–152nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.