Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tim AndersonBatting2-4
- Touki ToussaintPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Albies doubled to center, Arcia scored and Harris II scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 7Harris II singled to left, Rosario scored, Arcia to second.0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Arcia singled to center, Ozuna scored, Rosario to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 6Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Olson homered to right center (430 feet), Acuña Jr. scored, Albies scored and Riley scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +101 Elo | ATL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–29 | Road vs home | 30–152nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.