Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Robert Jr. homered to center (402 feet), Benintendi scored.8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Sheets reached on infield single to shortstop, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to second, Anderson to third.6–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Benintendi singled to center, Andrus scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Olson singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Robert Jr. singled to left, Benintendi scored, Anderson to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Anderson singled to right, Andrus scored, Benintendi to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Burger homered to center (461 feet), Vaughn scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -139
- CHW +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.6 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | CHW: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +100 Elo | ATL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–30 | Road vs home | 31–162nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.