Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nick AhmedBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Olson to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.5–3
- 9Acuña Jr. scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Olson to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.5–3
- 8Ahmed reached on infield single to second, Walker scored, Moreno to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Riley homered to left center (451 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Ahmed doubled to left, Longoria scored, Moreno to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, McCarthy scored and Carroll scored, Walker to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Ozuna homered to right center (387 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Moreno hit a ground rule double, Walker scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.4 – 5.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +69 Elo | ATL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–18 | Road vs home | 31–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.