Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored.16–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play16–13
- 9Perdomo doubled to center, McCarthy scored and Thomas scored.15–13
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–13
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–13
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–13
- 8Canzone singled to right, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.13–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–13
- 6Riley homered to center (438 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.12–13
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play12–13
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul12–11
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging12–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–11
- 6Walker homered to center (416 feet), Marte scored and Carroll scored.12–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–11
- 6Carroll reached on infield single to first, Thomas scored, Marte to third.9–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–11
- 5Arcia homered to center (421 feet), Murphy scored.8–11
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–11
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–9
- 4Riley homered to left (392 feet), Pillar scored and Albies scored.8–9
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 38–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 4Pillar doubled to center, Arcia scored.8–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- ARI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +3 | ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–18 | Road vs home | 31–172nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.