Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson homered to right (366 feet).5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Riley homered to center (432 feet), Harris II scored and Albies scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Carroll homered to right center (431 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Olson homered to left center (408 feet), Riley scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Rivera homered to right center (375 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Canzone homered to right (371 feet), Carroll scored and Walker scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Arcia homered to left (403 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.4 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +40 Elo | ATL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–18 | Road vs home | 31–195th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.