Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte homered to center (425 feet), Perdomo scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Thomas homered to right (342 feet).4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 5McLain homered to right (366 feet), Stephenson scored, Benson scored and De La Cruz scored.3–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 5Benson hit a ground rule double, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Stephenson to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Marte tripled to right, Perdomo scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Steer doubled to left, McLain scored and Senzel scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Perdomo singled to center, Thomas scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Senzel grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stephenson scored, De La Cruz out at second, Benson to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Steer grounded out to third, Senzel scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Marte homered to right (351 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.121st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3028–19 | Road vs home | 25–2621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.