Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GilbertPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Encarnacion-Strand singled to right, McLain scored and Steer scored, India to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Steer singled to right, Friedl scored, McLain to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Fraley doubled to right, Steer scored, Fraley thrown out at third.3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Carroll homered to center (446 feet), Marte scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Marte reached on infield single to first, Perdomo scored on throwing error by first baseman Steer, Marte to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Senzel homered to left (388 feet), Encarnacion-Strand scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1De La Cruz homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Fair odds
- CIN -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.1 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −14 | ARI: Jose Ruiz (no track record yet) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +3 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3028–21 | Road vs home | 27–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–2 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.