Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to right (370 feet).2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 8Fraley grounded out to first, De La Cruz scored, Friedl to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Fraley homered to right (397 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6McLain homered to left (404 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Friedl homered to right (346 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Marte singled to right, McCarthy scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.2 – 5.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +7 Elo | CIN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–20 | Road vs home | 26–2620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.