Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Adames scored on error, Monasterio safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Acuña Jr..3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Frelick singled to left, Winker scored, Monasterio to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Perkins singled to right, Miller scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Turang hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored, Miller to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Riley homered to center (422 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +14 | ATL: Allan Winans (no track record yet) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +2 Elo | ATL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3031–14 | Road vs home | 26–2213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.