Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies homered to center (407 feet), Harris II scored and Acuña Jr. scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Miller hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Turang homered to right (417 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2d'Arnaud homered to right (361 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 48%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.020th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3031–15 | Road vs home | 27–2211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.