Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yelich singled to right, Perkins scored, Taylor to second.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Frelick homered to right (384 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (456 feet), Stephenson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Contreras singled to center, Yelich scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +11 Elo | MIL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3027–20 | Road vs home | 27–2314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–8 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.