Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario singled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to second.6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Freeman singled to right, Outman scored and Peralta scored, Betts to third.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7McLain walked, Benson scored, Friedl to second, De La Cruz to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 46–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Friedl hit by pitch, Senzel scored, De La Cruz to second, Benson to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Steer homered to left (357 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Rojas singled to right, Rosario scored, Taylor thrown out at home.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Martinez doubled to center, Freeman scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Fraley homered to right (337 feet), McLain scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Friedl grounded out to second, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Fair odds
- LAD -117
- CIN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +5 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +52 Elo | LAD 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 30–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 LAD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.