Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Randal GrichukBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk homered to left center (414 feet).11–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–2
- 7Brown singled to right, Kemp scored, Rooker to second.11–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–2
- 6Soderstrom singled to center, Laureano scored, Peterson to third.10–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 6Laureano doubled to left, Brown scored and Bleday scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 6Rooker hit sacrifice fly to right, Gelof scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Cron reached on infield single to third, McMahon scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 2Toglia singled to center, Díaz scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 2Rooker homered to left center (462 feet), Bleday scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Gelof homered to right center (406 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -121
- OAK +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.5 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +31 Elo | COL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–37 | Road vs home | 23–2724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.