Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Randal GrichukBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arraez singled to right, Wendle scored, Fortes to second, Sánchez to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Grichuk homered to left center (438 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 31–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Arraez doubled to center, Fortes scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Doyle homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Fair odds
- MIA -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +7 | COL: Ty Blach (no track record yet) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +46 Elo | MIA 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–33 | Road vs home | 30–205th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.