Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jean SeguraBatting2-4
- George SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fortes grounded out to third, De La Cruz scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Díaz homered to left (405 feet).6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Profar homered to right center (402 feet), Trejo scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Trejo doubled to right, Grichuk scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Cron homered to left center (402 feet), Profar scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Fair odds
- MIA -126
- COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +2 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +50 Elo | MIA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–33 | Road vs home | 30–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.