Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cooper singled to center, Myers scored, Soler to second.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Arenado doubled to center, Carlson scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6Carlson singled to right, Gorman scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Sánchez homered to left center (398 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Walker singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Carlson scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Arraez singled to left, Fortes scored, Arraez to second, Myers to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Arenado singled to left, Carlson scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2De La Cruz homered to left center (421 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -101
- MIA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.1 – 5.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 18–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.