Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arraez doubled to right, Hampson scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8De La Cruz homered to left (369 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Gorman singled to right, Nootbaar scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Nootbaar reached on infield single to third, Donovan scored on throwing error by third baseman Berti, Nootbaar to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Sánchez singled to right, Stallings scored and Soler scored, Sánchez to second.2–4
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 30–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Gorman homered to center (419 feet), Nootbaar scored and Arenado scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Arenado singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Nootbaar to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.2 – 5.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dakota Hudson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 20–2526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.