Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting3-4
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arenado homered to left (389 feet), DeJong scored and Nootbaar scored.2–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Gorman doubled to right, Carlson scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Soler singled to center, Berti scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Donovan homered to right (388 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Berti scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -103
- MIA +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.3 – 5.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +9 Elo | STL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 19–2527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.