Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grichuk singled to left, McMahon scored, Díaz to second.4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Jones homered to right center (445 feet), McMahon scored and Díaz scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Arraez tripled to right, Berti scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Wendle singled to left, Sánchez scored, Segura to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 61%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −37 | −21 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 1.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +75 Elo | MIA 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–33 | Road vs home | 30–195th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.