Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses homered to left (380 feet), Thomas scored and Candelario scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Candelario doubled to right, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Díaz singled to right, Grichuk scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Garrett homered to left center (401 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Díaz singled to left, McMahon scored, Grichuk to third.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Tovar homered to left (366 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Adams doubled to left, Meneses scored, Garrett thrown out at home.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Trejo singled to left, Toglia scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Toglia doubled to right, Díaz scored, Toglia to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +14 Elo | WSH 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–34 | Road vs home | 18–3328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.