Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call doubled to center, Garrett scored and Ruiz scored.10–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 9Trejo singled to center, Grichuk scored, Toglia to second, Jones to third.10–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 9Toglia hit by pitch, Díaz scored, Jones to second, Grichuk to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Candelario homered to right (388 feet), Abrams scored and Vargas scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Castro grounded out to first, Trejo scored, Doyle to third.8–1
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 8Doyle singled to center, Toglia scored, Doyle to second, Trejo to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 7Ruiz singled to left, Candelario scored, Meneses to second.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Tovar reached on infield single to third, Castro scored on throwing error by third baseman Candelario.6–0
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 7Castro singled to center, Trejo scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −18 | COL: Jake Bird: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +1 Elo | COL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–34 | Road vs home | 18–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.