Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams singled to right, Smith scored, Vargas to second, L. García to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Vargas walked, Chavis scored, L. García to second, Smith to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 44–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Garrett grounded out to second, Candelario scored, Smith to second, Chavis to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 9Smith hit by pitch, Thomas scored, Chavis to second, Candelario to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Toglia homered to left center (394 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Candelario grounded out to second, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3McMahon homered to right center (441 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Montero homered to left (374 feet), Castro scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −2 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +8 Elo | WSH 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–35 | Road vs home | 19–3328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.