Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Randal GrichukBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano homered to center (429 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Profar doubled to center, Jones scored and Toglia scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Toglia singled to center, Montero scored, Jones to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Profar scored, Tovar out at second.7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Gelof homered to left center (393 feet), Kemp scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Grichuk homered to left center (445 feet).5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Allen tripled to left, Langeliers scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2J. Diaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Allen scored, Rooker safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Trejo, Kemp to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Kemp sacrificed, Langeliers scored, Allen to second.3–0
- 2Langeliers tripled to center, A. Díaz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Laureano singled to right, Rooker scored, J. Diaz to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 59%
- Fair odds
- COL -125
- OAK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.4 – 5.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +61 Elo | COL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–37 | Road vs home | 23–2623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.