Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-3
- Michael GrovePitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Votto doubled to left, Newman scored.9–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 39–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 6Friedl singled to center, Benson scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 3Votto homered to right (418 feet), Fraley scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3McLain homered to left (369 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2De La Cruz homered to right center (411 feet).4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Steer grounded out to third, McLain scored, Fraley to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Fraley singled to center, Friedl scored on error, Fraley safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Outman, McLain safe at third on error.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Friedl doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Fair odds
- LAD -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3029–23 | Road vs home | 31–194th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–2 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.