Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-3
- Luis MedinaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5McMahon doubled to left, Tovar scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3McMahon singled to left, Wynns scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Fair odds
- COL -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 5.5 – 5.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +59 Elo | COL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3015–37 | Road vs home | 23–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.